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Les Astres vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FAP
FAP
2/27/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Les Astres33%
×Draw25%
FAP43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.33
FAP
1.55

FAP creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 50 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.22
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Les Astres
1.78
FAP
1.44

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
57%
Les Astres or FAP
75%
Draw or FAP
67%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
14%
FAP wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
74%
Les Astres 2+ goals
38%
Les Astres 3+ goals
15%
FAP 1+ goals
79%
FAP 2+ goals
46%
FAP 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
43%
FAP (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.22 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

FAP attack 1.32 + Les Astres defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Les Astres scores more
33%
level
25%
FAP scores more
43%

FAP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Les Astres 1–1 FAP

Les Astres and FAP drew 1-1 in Elite Two on February 27, 2026.