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FAP vs Les Astres — Elite Two 2020

FAP
FAP
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
5/6/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FAP36%
×Draw27%
Les Astres37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.26
Les Astres
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 10 away

creates per match

FAP
1.32
Les Astres
1.80

allows per match

FAP
0.78
Les Astres
1.20

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAP or draw
63%
FAP or Les Astres
73%
Draw or Les Astres
64%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
16%
Les Astres wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
72%
FAP 2+ goals
36%
FAP 3+ goals
13%
Les Astres 1+ goals
72%
Les Astres 2+ goals
37%
Les Astres 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
49%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Les Astres defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Les Astres attack 1.80 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FAP scores more
36%
level
27%
Les Astres scores more
37%

Les Astres at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Les Astres

Les Astres beat FAP 4-2 in Elite Two on May 6, 2026.