Les Astres 3–2 Eding Sport: Result & Stats

Les Astres

FT

3 – 2

Eding Sport

2/13/2019

Elite One · Round 3Stade Omnisport de Limbe (Limbé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Les Astres40%

×Draw29%

Eding Sport31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Les AstresExpected goals in this matchEding Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.03

Les Astres

1.22

Eding Sport

1.03

Les Astres creates 18% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 54 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Les Astres

1.31

Eding Sport

1.00

allows per match

Les Astres

1.06

Eding Sport

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Eding Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw

69%

Les Astres or Eding Sport

71%

Draw or Eding Sport

60%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+

18%

Eding Sport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals

70%

Les Astres 2+ goals

34%

Les Astres 3+ goals

12%

Eding Sport 1+ goals

64%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

28%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)

57%

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Les Astres scores more

40%

level

29%

Eding Sport scores more

31%

Les Astres at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff