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Eding Sport vs Les Astres — Elite Two 2020

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
1 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
3/8/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Eding Sport32%
×Draw24%
Les Astres44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.40
Les Astres
1.67

Les Astres creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.60
Les Astres
1.80

allows per match

Eding Sport
1.53
Les Astres
1.20

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
56%
Eding Sport or Les Astres
76%
Draw or Les Astres
68%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
15%
Les Astres wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
75%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
41%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
17%
Les Astres 1+ goals
81%
Les Astres 2+ goals
50%
Les Astres 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
42%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + Les Astres defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Les Astres attack 1.80 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eding Sport scores more
32%
level
24%
Les Astres scores more
44%

Les Astres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Eding Sport 1–1 Les Astres

Eding Sport and Les Astres drew 1-1 in Elite Two on March 8, 2026.