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Les Astres vs Cotonsport — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cotonsport
Cotonsport
4/27/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 21Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Les Astres35%
×Draw29%
Cotonsport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.08
Cotonsport
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 100 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.29
Cotonsport
1.12

allows per match

Les Astres
1.09
Cotonsport
0.88

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Cotonsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
64%
Les Astres or Cotonsport
71%
Draw or Cotonsport
65%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
14%
Cotonsport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
66%
Les Astres 2+ goals
29%
Les Astres 3+ goals
10%
Cotonsport 1+ goals
67%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
30%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
49%
Cotonsport (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.29 + Cotonsport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cotonsport attack 1.12 + Les Astres defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Les Astres scores more
35%
level
29%
Cotonsport scores more
36%

Cotonsport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Les Astres 0–0 Cotonsport

Les Astres and Cotonsport drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.