Cotonsport 3–0 Les Astres: Result & Stats

Cotonsport

FT

3 – 0

Les Astres

D. Kamilou 83'

L. Araina 78', 45'

5/28/2021

Elite One · Round 8Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Cotonsport55%

×Draw25%

Les Astres20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.83

Cotonsport

1.56

Les Astres

0.83

Cotonsport creates 88% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

1.80

creates per match

1.01

0.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.80

Les Astres

1.01

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.65

Les Astres

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

80%

Cotonsport or Les Astres

75%

Draw or Les Astres

45%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

29%

Les Astres wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

79%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

46%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

21%

Les Astres 1+ goals

56%

Les Astres 2+ goals

20%

Les Astres 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

73%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Les Astres defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Les Astres attack 1.01 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cotonsport scores more

55%

level

25%

Les Astres scores more

20%

Cotonsport at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

L. Araina

78'

L. Araina

83'

D. Kamilou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff