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Les Astres vs Colombe — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colombe
Colombe
6/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 23Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Les Astres36%
×Draw29%
Colombe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.12
Colombe
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 92 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Colombe
1.18

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Colombe
0.93

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Colombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
64%
Les Astres or Colombe
71%
Draw or Colombe
64%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
14%
Colombe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
67%
Les Astres 2+ goals
31%
Les Astres 3+ goals
10%
Colombe 1+ goals
67%
Colombe 2+ goals
31%
Colombe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
50%
Colombe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

Colombe attack 1.18 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Les Astres scores more
36%
level
29%
Colombe scores more
36%

Les Astres at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Astres vs Colombe

Les Astres beat Colombe 2-1 in Elite One on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.