Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Colombe vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Les Astres
Les Astres
10/22/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Colombe47%
×Draw28%
Les Astres25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.36
Les Astres
0.91

Colombe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 75 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
75%
Colombe or Les Astres
72%
Draw or Les Astres
53%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
22%
Les Astres wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
74%
Colombe 2+ goals
39%
Colombe 3+ goals
16%
Les Astres 1+ goals
60%
Les Astres 2+ goals
23%
Les Astres 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
65%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Colombe scores more
47%
level
28%
Les Astres scores more
25%

Colombe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Colombe 2–1 Les Astres

Colombe beat Les Astres 2-1 in Elite One on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.