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Les Astres vs Avion Academy — Elite Two 2020

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
6/17/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Championship Group - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Les Astres32%
×Draw26%
Avion Academy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.24
Avion Academy
1.45

Avion Academy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.22
Avion Academy
1.11

allows per match

Les Astres
1.78
Avion Academy
1.26

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
58%
Les Astres or Avion Academy
74%
Draw or Avion Academy
68%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
14%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
71%
Les Astres 2+ goals
35%
Les Astres 3+ goals
13%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
77%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
42%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
44%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.22 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Les Astres defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Les Astres scores more
32%
level
26%
Avion Academy scores more
42%

Avion Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Astres vs Avion Academy

Avion Academy beat Les Astres 2-0 in Elite Two on June 17, 2026.