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Les Astres vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
5/2/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 6Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Les Astres44%
×Draw28%
Avion Academy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.28
Avion Academy
0.94

Les Astres creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 67 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
73%
Les Astres or Avion Academy
72%
Draw or Avion Academy
56%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
20%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
72%
Les Astres 2+ goals
37%
Les Astres 3+ goals
14%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
61%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
24%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
62%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Les Astres scores more
44%
level
28%
Avion Academy scores more
27%

Les Astres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Les Astres vs Avion Academy

Les Astres beat Avion Academy 4-0 in Elite One on May 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe B in Yaoundé.