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Lernayin Artsakh vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
10/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Vayk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh17%
×Draw24%
FC Noah58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
0.77
FC Noah
1.64

FC Noah creates 113% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
0.33
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
42%
Lernayin Artsakh or FC Noah
76%
Draw or FC Noah
83%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
5%
FC Noah wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
54%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
18%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
4%
FC Noah 1+ goals
81%
FC Noah 2+ goals
49%
FC Noah 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
23%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 0.33 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
17%
level
24%
FC Noah scores more
58%

FC Noah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lernayin Artsakh vs FC Noah

Lernayin Artsakh and FC Noah drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Vayk Stadium in Vayk.