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FC Noah vs Lernayin Artsakh — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
8/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Armavir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Noah60%
×Draw24%
Lernayin Artsakh16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.71
Lernayin Artsakh
0.75

FC Noah creates 128% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
Lernayin Artsakh
0.56

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
Lernayin Artsakh
1.39

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
84%
FC Noah or Lernayin Artsakh
76%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
40%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
34%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
82%
FC Noah 2+ goals
51%
FC Noah 3+ goals
24%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
53%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
17%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
79%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lernayin Artsakh attack 0.56 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Noah scores more
60%
level
24%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
16%

FC Noah at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Noah vs Lernayin Artsakh

Lernayin Artsakh beat FC Noah 1-0 in Premier League on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Armavir Stadium in Armavir.