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Lernayin Artsakh vs Dilijan — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
6 – 1
Dilijan
Dilijan
10/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh73%
×Draw15%
Dilijan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
3.02
Dilijan
1.22

Lernayin Artsakh creates 148% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Dilijan
1.08

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Dilijan
4.15

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Dilijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
87%
Lernayin Artsakh or Dilijan
85%
Draw or Dilijan
27%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
53%
Dilijan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
95%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
80%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
57%
Dilijan 1+ goals
70%
Dilijan 2+ goals
34%
Dilijan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
85%
Dilijan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.02

Dilijan attack 1.08 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
73%
level
15%
Dilijan scores more
13%

Lernayin Artsakh at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lernayin Artsakh 6–1 Dilijan

Lernayin Artsakh beat Dilijan 6-1 in First League on October 16, 2019.

The match was played at Sisian Stadium in Sisian.