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Dilijan vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
4 – 2
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
6/24/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan25%
×Draw19%
Lernayin Artsakh56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
1.65
Lernayin Artsakh
2.52

Lernayin Artsakh creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
44%
Dilijan or Lernayin Artsakh
81%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
75%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
12%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
81%
Dilijan 2+ goals
49%
Dilijan 3+ goals
23%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
92%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
71%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
31%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dilijan scores more
25%
level
19%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
56%

Lernayin Artsakh at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dilijan 4–2 Lernayin Artsakh

Dilijan beat Lernayin Artsakh 4-2 in First League on June 24, 2020.

The match was played at UWC Dilijan in Dilijan.