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Lernayin Artsakh vs Aragats — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
CANC
14:00
Aragats
Aragats
7/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh52%
×Draw20%
Aragats28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
2.38
Aragats
1.71

Lernayin Artsakh creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
72%
Lernayin Artsakh or Aragats
80%
Draw or Aragats
48%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
32%
Aragats wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
91%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
68%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
42%
Aragats 1+ goals
82%
Aragats 2+ goals
51%
Aragats 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
65%
Aragats (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.38

Aragats attack 2.07 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
52%
level
20%
Aragats scores more
28%

Lernayin Artsakh at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lernayin Artsakh face Aragats (First League)

First League returns with Lernayin Artsakh hosting Aragats. Match starts July 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lernayin Artsakh host Aragats at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.