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Aragats vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
0 – 2
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
11/22/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats35%
×Draw21%
Lernayin Artsakh43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
1.77
Lernayin Artsakh
1.98

Lernayin Artsakh creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 81 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
57%
Aragats or Lernayin Artsakh
79%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
65%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
18%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
83%
Aragats 2+ goals
53%
Aragats 3+ goals
26%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
86%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
59%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
45%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aragats scores more
35%
level
21%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
43%

Lernayin Artsakh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Aragats 0–2 Lernayin Artsakh

Lernayin Artsakh beat Aragats 2-0 in First League on November 22, 2019.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik in Ashtarak.