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Lernayin Artsakh II vs Gandzasar — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
CANC
12:00
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
4/2/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh II10%
×Draw13%
Gandzasar77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.07
Gandzasar
3.11

Gandzasar creates 191% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
Gandzasar
2.00

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
4.22
Gandzasar
1.14

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par
Gandzasar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh II ↓

Gandzasar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh II or draw
23%
Lernayin Artsakh II or Gandzasar
87%
Draw or Gandzasar
90%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
3%
Gandzasar wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
66%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
29%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
9%
Gandzasar 1+ goals
95%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
81%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
12%
Gandzasar (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

Gandzasar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Gandzasar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Gandzasar attack 2.00 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 3.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
10%
level
13%
Gandzasar scores more
77%

Gandzasar at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lernayin Artsakh II face Gandzasar (First League)

First League returns with Lernayin Artsakh II hosting Gandzasar. Match starts April 2, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lernayin Artsakh II host Gandzasar at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.