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Gandzasar vs Lernayin Artsakh II — First League 2019

Gandzasar
Gandzasar
FT
3 – 1
Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
10/16/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gandzasar73%
×Draw15%
Lernayin Artsakh II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gandzasar
2.75
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.01

Gandzasar creates 172% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gandzasar
2.27
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00

allows per match

Gandzasar
1.02
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.22

finishing

Gandzasar+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gandzasar ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gandzasar or draw
88%
Gandzasar or Lernayin Artsakh II
85%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II
27%

Winning margin

Gandzasar wins by 2+
52%
Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gandzasar 1+ goals
93%
Gandzasar 2+ goals
75%
Gandzasar 3+ goals
51%
Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
64%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
27%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gandzasar (draw refunded)
86%
Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gandzasar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gandzasar attack 2.27 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.75

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Gandzasar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gandzasar scores more
73%
level
15%
Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
12%

Gandzasar at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gandzasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Gandzasar 3–1 Lernayin Artsakh II

Gandzasar beat Lernayin Artsakh II 3-1 in First League on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.