Lernayin Artsakh II 1–6 Ararat-Armenia II

Lernayin Artsakh II

FT

1 – 6

Ararat-Armenia II

8/23/2022

First League · Round 5Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh II17%

×Draw17%

Ararat-Armenia II66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lernayin Artsakh IIExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.85

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.43

Ararat-Armenia II

2.85

Ararat-Armenia II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

1.48

4.22

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.00

Ararat-Armenia II

1.48

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh II

4.22

Ararat-Armenia II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh II ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh II or draw

34%

Lernayin Artsakh II or Ararat-Armenia II

83%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia II

83%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+

7%

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals

76%

Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals

42%

Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals

17%

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

94%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

77%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)

21%

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more

17%

level

17%

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

66%

Ararat-Armenia II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff