Ararat-Armenia II 2–2 Lernayin Artsakh II

Ararat-Armenia II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Lernayin Artsakh II

11/21/2022

First League · Round 16Football Academy 3rd pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II61%

×Draw19%

Lernayin Artsakh II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-Armenia IIExpected goals in this matchLernayin Artsakh II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.41

Ararat-Armenia II

2.51

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.41

Ararat-Armenia II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

1.82

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.80

Lernayin Artsakh II

1.00

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.82

Lernayin Artsakh II

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw

79%

Ararat-Armenia II or Lernayin Artsakh II

81%

Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II

39%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

40%

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

92%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

71%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

45%

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals

76%

Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals

41%

Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

75%

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.51

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

61%

level

19%

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more

21%

Ararat-Armenia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff