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Lernayin Artsakh II vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
CANC
11:00
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
3/10/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh II24%
×Draw18%
Alashkert II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.79
Alashkert II
2.80

Alashkert II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 64 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
4.22
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh II ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh II or draw
42%
Lernayin Artsakh II or Alashkert II
82%
Draw or Alashkert II
76%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
11%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
83%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
53%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
26%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
94%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
76%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
29%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
24%
level
18%
Alashkert II scores more
58%

Alashkert II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lernayin Artsakh II face Alashkert II (First League)

First League returns with Lernayin Artsakh II hosting Alashkert II. Match starts March 10, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lernayin Artsakh II host Alashkert II at Sisian Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.