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Alashkert II vs Lernayin Artsakh II — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
11/5/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alashkert II54%
×Draw20%
Lernayin Artsakh II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
2.42
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.67

Alashkert II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 9 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.22

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
73%
Alashkert II or Lernayin Artsakh II
80%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II
46%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
34%
Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
91%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
69%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
43%
Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
81%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
50%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
67%
Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alashkert II scores more
54%
level
20%
Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
27%

Alashkert II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alashkert II 4–1 Lernayin Artsakh II

Alashkert II beat Lernayin Artsakh II 4-1 in First League on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.