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Leotar vs Borac Kozarska Dubica — 1st League - RS 2019

Leotar
Leotar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
11/4/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion Police

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Leotar71%
×Draw19%
Borac Kozarska Dubica10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leotar
2.11
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.66

Leotar creates 220% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 64 away

creates per match

Leotar
1.88
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.75

allows per match

Leotar
0.56
Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.34

finishing

Leotar+0.00on par
Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leotar ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leotar or draw
90%
Leotar or Borac Kozarska Dubica
81%
Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica
29%

Winning margin

Leotar wins by 2+
46%
Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leotar 1+ goals
88%
Leotar 2+ goals
62%
Leotar 3+ goals
35%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
48%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
14%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Leotar (draw refunded)
87%
Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leotar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.56 · 64 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leotar attack 1.88 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.11

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Leotar defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Leotar scores more
71%
level
19%
Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
10%

Leotar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Leotar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leotar vs Borac Kozarska Dubica

Leotar beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 4-0 in 1st League - RS on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Police in Trebinje.