Borac Kozarska Dubica 1–2 Leotar: Result & Stats

Borac Kozarska Dubica

FT

1 – 2

Leotar

3/6/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 16Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica40%

×Draw28%

Leotar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Kozarska DubicaExpected goals in this matchLeotar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.27

Leotar

1.09

Borac Kozarska Dubica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.23

Leotar

0.89

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.30

Leotar

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Leotar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw

68%

Borac Kozarska Dubica or Leotar

72%

Draw or Leotar

60%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

18%

Leotar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

72%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

36%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

14%

Leotar 1+ goals

66%

Leotar 2+ goals

30%

Leotar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

56%

Leotar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leotar attack 0.89 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

40%

level

28%

Leotar scores more

32%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff