Leopard de Douala 0–1 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

Leopard de Douala

FT

0 – 1

Aigle Royal

4/2/2021

Elite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leopard de Douala34%

×Draw27%

Aigle Royal39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.29

Leopard de Douala

1.17

Aigle Royal

1.29

Aigle Royal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

1.10

creates per match

1.29

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Aigle Royal

1.29

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Aigle Royal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

61%

Leopard de Douala or Aigle Royal

73%

Draw or Aigle Royal

66%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

14%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

69%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

33%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

11%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

72%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

37%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

46%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

34%

level

27%

Aigle Royal scores more

39%

Aigle Royal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff