Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aigle Royal vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
1 – 1
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
8/11/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal59%
×Draw24%
Leopard de Douala17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.66
Leopard de Douala
0.77

Aigle Royal creates 116% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
83%
Aigle Royal or Leopard de Douala
76%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
41%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
32%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
81%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
49%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
23%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
54%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
18%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
77%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
59%
level
24%
Leopard de Douala scores more
17%

Aigle Royal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Aigle Royal 1–1 Leopard de Douala

Aigle Royal and Leopard de Douala drew 1-1 in Elite Two on August 11, 2021.