Leonico 1–3 Galícia: Result & Stats | Baiano - 2

Leonico

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Galícia

Unknown 90+4'

Unknown 82', 77'

J. Palacios 31'

6/1/2025

Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leonico23%

×Draw22%

Galícia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeonicoExpected goals in this matchGalícia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.02

Leonico

1.23

Galícia

2.02

Galícia creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

0.94

creates per match

1.16

2.88

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Leonico

0.94

Galícia

1.16

allows per match

Leonico

2.88

Galícia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leonico+0.00on par

Galícia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leonico ↓

Galícia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Leonico or draw

45%

Leonico or Galícia

78%

Draw or Galícia

77%

Winning margin

Leonico wins by 2+

9%

Galícia wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Leonico 1+ goals

71%

Leonico 2+ goals

35%

Leonico 3+ goals

13%

Galícia 1+ goals

87%

Galícia 2+ goals

60%

Galícia 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Leonico (draw refunded)

29%

Galícia (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leonico at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

Galícia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leonico attack 0.94 + Galícia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Galícia attack 1.16 + Leonico defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leonico scores more

23%

level

22%

Galícia scores more

55%

Galícia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

J. Palacios

77'

82'

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff