Galícia 0–0 Leonico: Result & Stats | Baiano - 2

Galícia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leonico

6/27/2024

Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Galícia47%

×Draw26%

Leonico27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalíciaExpected goals in this matchLeonico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Galícia

1.50

Leonico

1.08

Galícia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

0.90

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Galícia

0.90

Leonico

1.17

allows per match

Galícia

1.00

Leonico

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galícia+0.00on par

Leonico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galícia ↓

Leonico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Galícia or draw

73%

Galícia or Leonico

74%

Draw or Leonico

53%

Winning margin

Galícia wins by 2+

23%

Leonico wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Galícia 1+ goals

78%

Galícia 2+ goals

44%

Galícia 3+ goals

19%

Leonico 1+ goals

66%

Leonico 2+ goals

29%

Leonico 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Galícia (draw refunded)

63%

Leonico (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galícia at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Leonico away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galícia attack 0.90 + Leonico defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leonico attack 1.17 + Galícia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Galícia scores more

47%

level

26%

Leonico scores more

27%

Galícia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Galícia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff