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Leonico U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Leonico U20
Leonico U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20advanced
7/20/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Deputado Galdino Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Leonico U2019%
×Draw25%
Estrela De Marco U2056%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leonico U20
0.83
Estrela De Marco U20
1.63

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Leonico U20
0.67
Estrela De Marco U20
1.20

allows per match

Leonico U20
2.05
Estrela De Marco U20
1.00

finishing

Leonico U20+0.00on par
Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leonico U20 ↓

Estrela De Marco U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leonico U20 or draw
44%
Leonico U20 or Estrela De Marco U20
75%
Draw or Estrela De Marco U20
81%

Winning margin

Leonico U20 wins by 2+
6%
Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Leonico U20 1+ goals
56%
Leonico U20 2+ goals
20%
Leonico U20 3+ goals
5%
Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
80%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
48%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Leonico U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leonico U20 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Estrela De Marco U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leonico U20 attack 0.67 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.20 + Leonico U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leonico U20 scores more
19%
level
25%
Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
56%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leonico U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Leonico U20 2-0 in Baiano U20 on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Deputado Galdino Leite in Salvador, Bahia.