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Estrela De Marco U20 vs Leonico U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20
FT
2 – 1
Leonico U20
Leonico U20
6/4/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Mariano Santana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Estrela De Marco U2075%
×Draw16%
Leonico U209%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela De Marco U20
2.39
Leonico U20
0.69

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 246% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Estrela De Marco U20
1.88
Leonico U20
0.75

allows per match

Estrela De Marco U20
0.63
Leonico U20
2.90

finishing

Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par
Leonico U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela De Marco U20 ↓

Leonico U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Estrela De Marco U20 or draw
91%
Estrela De Marco U20 or Leonico U20
84%
Draw or Leonico U20
25%

Winning margin

Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
52%
Leonico U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
91%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
69%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
42%
Leonico U20 1+ goals
50%
Leonico U20 2+ goals
15%
Leonico U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Leonico U20 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela De Marco U20 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Leonico U20 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.88 + Leonico U20 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.39

Leonico U20 attack 0.75 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
75%
level
16%
Leonico U20 scores more
9%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Estrela De Marco U20 2–1 Leonico U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Leonico U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on June 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mariano Santana in Serrinha, Bahia.