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Leones Negros UDG vs Cimarrones — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cimarrones
Cimarrones
1/19/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Leones Negros UDG48%
×Draw26%
Cimarrones26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones Negros UDG
1.54
Cimarrones
1.06

Leones Negros UDG creates 45% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 97 away

creates per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.75
Cimarrones
1.07

allows per match

Leones Negros UDG
1.06
Cimarrones
1.33

finishing

Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par
Cimarrones+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones Negros UDG ↓

Cimarrones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leones Negros UDG or draw
74%
Leones Negros UDG or Cimarrones
74%
Draw or Cimarrones
52%

Winning margin

Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
25%
Cimarrones wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
79%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
45%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
20%
Cimarrones 1+ goals
65%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
29%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
65%
Cimarrones (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones Negros UDG at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 134 matches

Cimarrones away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.75 + Cimarrones defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cimarrones attack 1.07 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leones Negros UDG scores more
48%
level
26%
Cimarrones scores more
26%

Leones Negros UDG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leones Negros UDG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Leones Negros UDG 1–2 Cimarrones

Cimarrones beat Leones Negros UDG 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.