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Cimarrones vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarrones
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
1/10/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Héroe de Nacozari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Cimarrones47%
×Draw27%
Leones Negros UDG27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.42
Leones Negros UDG
1.00

Cimarrones creates 42% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 134 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.43
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.96
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
73%
Cimarrones or Leones Negros UDG
73%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
53%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
23%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
76%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
41%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
17%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
63%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
26%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
64%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 102 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.43 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Cimarrones defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cimarrones scores more
47%
level
27%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
27%

Cimarrones at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cimarrones vs Leones Negros UDG

Cimarrones and Leones Negros UDG drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari in Hermosillo.