Leones FC 1–2 Internacional Palmira: Result & Stats

Leones FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Internacional Palmira

3/21/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Leones FC41%

×Draw28%

Internacional Palmira31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones FCExpected goals in this matchInternacional Palmira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Leones FC

1.27

Internacional Palmira

1.05

Leones FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 49 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

0.94

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leones FC

1.29

Internacional Palmira

1.16

allows per match

Leones FC

0.94

Internacional Palmira

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Internacional Palmira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw

69%

Leones FC or Internacional Palmira

72%

Draw or Internacional Palmira

59%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+

19%

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals

72%

Leones FC 2+ goals

36%

Leones FC 3+ goals

14%

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

65%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

28%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Leones FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leones FC scores more

41%

level

28%

Internacional Palmira scores more

31%

Leones FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff