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Internacional Palmira vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Internacional Palmira
Internacional Palmira
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leones FC
Leones FC
9/10/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 6Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Internacional Palmira47%
×Draw26%
Leones FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Palmira
1.46
Leones FC
1.03

Internacional Palmira creates 42% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 127 away

creates per match

Internacional Palmira
1.23
Leones FC
1.29

allows per match

Internacional Palmira
0.77
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira or draw
73%
Internacional Palmira or Leones FC
74%
Draw or Leones FC
53%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+
23%
Leones FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals
77%
Internacional Palmira 2+ goals
43%
Internacional Palmira 3+ goals
18%
Leones FC 1+ goals
64%
Leones FC 2+ goals
28%
Leones FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)
64%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira attack 1.23 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Internacional Palmira defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Internacional Palmira scores more
47%
level
26%
Leones FC scores more
27%

Internacional Palmira at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Internacional Palmira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Internacional Palmira 1–0 Leones FC

Internacional Palmira beat Leones FC 1-0 in Primera B on September 10, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.