Leones FC 2–1 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Leones FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fortaleza FC

A. Córdoba 40'

V. Berrio 37'

S. Navarro 4'

3/17/2021

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Leones FC35%

×Draw29%

Fortaleza FC37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones FCExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.16

Leones FC

1.12

Fortaleza FC

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.05

1.27

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Leones FC

1.13

Fortaleza FC

1.05

allows per match

Leones FC

1.27

Fortaleza FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw

63%

Leones FC or Fortaleza FC

71%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

65%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+

14%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals

67%

Leones FC 2+ goals

31%

Leones FC 3+ goals

10%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

69%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

32%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)

49%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.13 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Fortaleza FC attack 1.05 + Leones FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leones FC scores more

35%

level

29%

Fortaleza FC scores more

37%

Fortaleza FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

37'

40'

49'

57'

K. Palacios← B. Blandón

71'

A. Rodríguez← J. Rivas

71'

L. Gómez← J. Arango

73'

C. Lucumi← G. Valencia

80'

J. Ceballos← Y. Yepes

Leones

Fortaleza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Hernández

71'▲A. Rodríguez←▼J. Rivas

71'▲L. Gómez←▼J. Arango

80'▲J. Ceballos←▼Y. Yepes

Leones FC substitutes

RodríguezGómezCeballosHolguínOsorioVillalbaFruto

Manager: N. Flórez

49'▲K. Castro←▼J. Solís

57'▲K. Palacios←▼B. Blandón

73'▲C. Lucumi←▼G. Valencia

Fortaleza FC substitutes

CastroPalaciosLucumiEstupiñánCastilloMelendezTorres

Copa Colombia: Leones FC 2–1 Fortaleza FC

Leones FC beat Fortaleza FC 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 17, 2021.

Goals: S. Navarro (4'), V. Berrio (37'), A. Córdoba (40').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.

Leones FC vs Fortaleza FC — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Leones FC 2–1 Fortaleza FC