Fortaleza FC 3–1 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leones FC

8/30/2023

Primera B · Clausura - 7Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Fortaleza FC52%

×Draw24%

Leones FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

Fortaleza FC

1.75

Leones FC

1.14

Fortaleza FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 127 away

1.80

creates per match

1.29

0.99

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.80

Leones FC

1.29

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.99

Leones FC

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

75%

Fortaleza FC or Leones FC

76%

Draw or Leones FC

48%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

28%

Leones FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

83%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

52%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

25%

Leones FC 1+ goals

68%

Leones FC 2+ goals

32%

Leones FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

68%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.99 · 107 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.80 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

52%

level

24%

Leones FC scores more

25%

Fortaleza FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff