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Fortaleza FC vs Leones FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leones FC
Leones FC
6/12/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Municipal de Cota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fortaleza FC47%
×Draw30%
Leones FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.19
Leones FC
0.74

Fortaleza FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.10
Leones FC
0.73

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.75
Leones FC
1.27

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
77%
Fortaleza FC or Leones FC
70%
Draw or Leones FC
53%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
21%
Leones FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
33%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
12%
Leones FC 1+ goals
52%
Leones FC 2+ goals
17%
Leones FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
67%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Leones FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.10 + Leones FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Leones FC attack 0.73 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
47%
level
30%
Leones FC scores more
23%

Fortaleza FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Leones FC

Fortaleza FC and Leones FC drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on June 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota in Cota.