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Leones FC vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
PST
22:00
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
7/24/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Leones FC41%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza FC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
1.19
Fortaleza FC
0.96

Leones FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 96 away

creates per match

Leones FC
1.28
Fortaleza FC
0.98

allows per match

Leones FC
0.93
Fortaleza FC
1.10

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
70%
Leones FC or Fortaleza FC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
59%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
18%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
70%
Leones FC 2+ goals
33%
Leones FC 3+ goals
12%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
62%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
25%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
58%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.28 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Leones FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leones FC scores more
41%
level
29%
Fortaleza FC scores more
30%

Leones FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leones FC face Fortaleza FC (Primera B)

Primera B returns with Leones FC hosting Fortaleza FC. Match starts July 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leones FC host Fortaleza FC at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.