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Leones FC vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
11/11/2018Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Leones FC28%
×Draw30%
Atletico Nacional42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
0.89
Atletico Nacional
1.17

Atletico Nacional creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 194 away

creates per match

Leones FC
0.69
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Leones FC
1.13
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
58%
Leones FC or Atletico Nacional
70%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
72%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
9%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
59%
Leones FC 2+ goals
22%
Leones FC 3+ goals
6%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
40%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 0.69 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Leones FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leones FC scores more
28%
level
30%
Atletico Nacional scores more
42%

Atletico Nacional at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Leones FC 2–2 Atletico Nacional

Leones FC and Atletico Nacional drew 2-2 in Primera A on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui in Itagui.