Atletico Nacional 1–0 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leones FC

5/7/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Nacional59%

×Draw24%

Leones FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.76

Atletico Nacional

1.66

Leones FC

0.76

Atletico Nacional creates 118% more chances

Season form · 187 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

0.71

0.82

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.84

Leones FC

0.71

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.82

Leones FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

83%

Atletico Nacional or Leones FC

76%

Draw or Leones FC

41%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

33%

Leones FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

81%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

49%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

23%

Leones FC 1+ goals

53%

Leones FC 2+ goals

18%

Leones FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

78%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.82 · 187 matches

Leones FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.84 + Leones FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Leones FC attack 0.71 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

59%

level

24%

Leones FC scores more

17%

Atletico Nacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff