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Leones FC vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
3/28/2018Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Leones FC33%
×Draw30%
Águilas Doradas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
0.99
Águilas Doradas
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 170 away

creates per match

Leones FC
0.68
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Leones FC
1.16
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
63%
Leones FC or Águilas Doradas
70%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
67%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
12%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
63%
Leones FC 2+ goals
26%
Leones FC 3+ goals
8%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
65%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
29%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
47%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 0.68 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Leones FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leones FC scores more
33%
level
30%
Águilas Doradas scores more
37%

Águilas Doradas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Leones FC 1–1 Águilas Doradas

Leones FC and Águilas Doradas drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui in Itagui.