Águilas Doradas 2–1 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leones FC

9/22/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Águilas Doradas48%

×Draw27%

Leones FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.92

Águilas Doradas

1.41

Leones FC

0.92

Águilas Doradas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 19 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

1.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.28

Leones FC

0.79

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Leones FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

75%

Águilas Doradas or Leones FC

73%

Draw or Leones FC

52%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

24%

Leones FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

76%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

41%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

17%

Leones FC 1+ goals

60%

Leones FC 2+ goals

23%

Leones FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

66%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Leones FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Leones FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Leones FC attack 0.79 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

48%

level

27%

Leones FC scores more

25%

Águilas Doradas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff