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Leones del Norte vs Cuniburo — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Cuniburo
Cuniburo
7/3/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 18Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte41%
×Draw29%
Cuniburo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.19
Cuniburo
0.96

Leones del Norte creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 44 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.15
Cuniburo
1.23

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.68
Cuniburo
1.23

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Cuniburo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Cuniburo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
70%
Leones del Norte or Cuniburo
71%
Draw or Cuniburo
59%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
18%
Cuniburo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
70%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
33%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
12%
Cuniburo 1+ goals
62%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
25%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
58%
Cuniburo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Cuniburo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + Cuniburo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cuniburo attack 1.23 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
41%
level
29%
Cuniburo scores more
30%

Leones del Norte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Leones del Norte 2–3 Cuniburo

Cuniburo beat Leones del Norte 3-2 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.