Cuniburo 4–1 Leones del Norte: Result & Stats

Cuniburo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Leones del Norte

3/13/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cuniburo54%

×Draw26%

Leones del Norte20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuniburoExpected goals in this matchLeones del Norte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.80

Cuniburo

1.52

Leones del Norte

0.80

Cuniburo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 34 away

1.93

creates per match

0.79

0.80

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Cuniburo

1.93

Leones del Norte

0.79

allows per match

Cuniburo

0.80

Leones del Norte

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Leones del Norte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw

80%

Cuniburo or Leones del Norte

74%

Draw or Leones del Norte

46%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+

28%

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals

78%

Cuniburo 2+ goals

45%

Cuniburo 3+ goals

20%

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

55%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

19%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)

73%

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.93 + Leones del Norte defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Leones del Norte attack 0.79 + Cuniburo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cuniburo scores more

54%

level

26%

Leones del Norte scores more

20%

Cuniburo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff