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Leones del Norte vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
C. Feraud 90+1'
K. Jiménez 28'
6/19/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 16Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte62%
×Draw25%
Chacaritas14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
1.60
Chacaritas
0.60

Leones del Norte creates 167% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
1.15
Chacaritas
0.53

allows per match

Leones del Norte
0.68
Chacaritas
2.06

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
86%
Leones del Norte or Chacaritas
75%
Draw or Chacaritas
38%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
34%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
80%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
47%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
22%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
45%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
12%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
82%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + Chacaritas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chacaritas attack 0.53 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
62%
level
25%
Chacaritas scores more
14%

Leones del Norte at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
K. Jiménez
90+1'
C. Feraud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Leones del Norte 2–0 Chacaritas

Leones del Norte beat Chacaritas 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 19, 2024.

Goals: K. Jiménez (28'), C. Feraud (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.