Chacaritas 2–1 Leones del Norte: Result & Stats

Chacaritas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leones del Norte

J. Rodríguez 73'

L. Lastra 7' (OG)

M. Caicedo 27'

7/10/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Jose Silva Romo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chacaritas35%

×Draw29%

Leones del Norte37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChacaritasExpected goals in this matchLeones del Norte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.14

Chacaritas

1.10

Leones del Norte

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

1.09

creates per match

0.79

1.49

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Chacaritas

1.09

Leones del Norte

0.79

allows per match

Chacaritas

1.49

Leones del Norte

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Leones del Norte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw

63%

Chacaritas or Leones del Norte

71%

Draw or Leones del Norte

65%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+

14%

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals

67%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

30%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

10%

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

68%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

32%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

49%

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.09 + Leones del Norte defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Leones del Norte attack 0.79 + Chacaritas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chacaritas scores more

35%

level

29%

Leones del Norte scores more

37%

Leones del Norte at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

L. LastraOwn goal

27'

M. Caicedo

73'

J. Rodríguez

90'

L. Lastra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff