Leones del Norte vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Leones del Norte47%
Aucas26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Leones del Norte creates 44% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 131 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Leones del Norte ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches
Aucas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 131 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Aucas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37
Aucas attack 1.21 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Leones del Norte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Independiente del Valle
MacaraLeones del Norte
Universidad CatolicaAucas
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de Quito
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
Orense SC
Deportivo CuencaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Leones del Norte host Aucas on Friday, 17 April 2026 at 22:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Leones del Norte 0–1 Aucas
Aucas beat Leones del Norte 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 17, 2026.
Goals: R. Quinonez (78').
Aucas controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.