Leones del Norte 1–4 Aucas: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

1 – 4

Aucas

6/12/2022

Copa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leones del Norte26%

×Draw21%

Aucas53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.06

Leones del Norte

1.40

Aucas

2.06

Aucas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.80

1.33

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Leones del Norte

2.00

Aucas

2.80

allows per match

Leones del Norte

1.33

Aucas

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

47%

Leones del Norte or Aucas

79%

Draw or Aucas

74%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

11%

Aucas wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

75%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

41%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

17%

Aucas 1+ goals

87%

Aucas 2+ goals

61%

Aucas 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

33%

Aucas (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Aucas away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 2.00 + Aucas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aucas attack 2.80 + Leones del Norte defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

26%

level

21%

Aucas scores more

53%

Aucas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff