Leones del Norte 0–0 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

9 de Octubre

9/25/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 5Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte45%

×Draw30%

9 de Octubre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.78

Leones del Norte

1.17

9 de Octubre

0.78

Leones del Norte creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

0.68

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.15

9 de Octubre

0.88

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.68

9 de Octubre

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

75%

Leones del Norte or 9 de Octubre

70%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

55%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

19%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

69%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

33%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

11%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

54%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

18%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

65%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

9 de Octubre attack 0.88 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

45%

level

30%

9 de Octubre scores more

25%

Leones del Norte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff