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9 de Octubre vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
10/26/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 9Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

9 de Octubre49%
×Draw29%
Leones del Norte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.31
Leones del Norte
0.80

9 de Octubre creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.51
Leones del Norte
0.79

allows per match

9 de Octubre
0.81
Leones del Norte
1.12

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
77%
9 de Octubre or Leones del Norte
71%
Draw or Leones del Norte
51%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
23%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
73%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
38%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
14%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
55%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
19%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
68%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.81 · 70 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.51 + Leones del Norte defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leones del Norte attack 0.79 + 9 de Octubre defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
49%
level
29%
Leones del Norte scores more
23%

9 de Octubre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: 9 de Octubre 0–1 Leones del Norte

Leones del Norte beat 9 de Octubre 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer in Guayaquil.